Journal Articles

 This section lists information about, and links to, journal articles that International Futures team members have authored either solely or with colleagues from other organizations. 

Title Author Publication Date Publication
Alternative pathways to human development: Assessing trade-offs and synergies in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals Jonathan D. Moyer and David K. Bohl 2019


Estimation and Mapping of Sub-National GDP in Uganda Using NPP-VIIRS Imagery Xuantong Wang, Mickey Rafa, Jonathan D. Moyer, Jing Li, Jennifer Scheer, and Paul Sutton 2019

Remote Sensing

Extremists and unconventional weapons: examining the pursuit of chemical and biological agents Thomas R. Guarrieri and Collin J. Meisel 2019

Behavorial Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression

The Future is a Moving Target: Predicting Political Instability Drew Bowlsby, Erica Chenoweth, Cullen Hendrix, and Jonathan D. Moyer 2019

British Journal of Political Science

ICT/Cyber Benefits and Costs: Reconciling Competing Perspectives on the Current and Future Balance Barry B. Hughes, David Bohl, Mohammod Irfan, Eli Margolese-Malin, and José R. Solórzano 2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Cost Analysis of Global Road Traffic Death Prevention: Forecasts to 2050 Jonathan D. Moyer, Mark Eshbaugh, and Jessica Rettig 2017

Development Policy Review

Beyond Attributable Burden: Estimating the Avoidable Burden of Disease Associated with Household Air Pollution Randall Kuhn, Dale S. Rothman, Sara Turner, José Solórzano, and Barry Hughes 2016


Poverty Eradication in Fragile Places: Prospects for Harvesting the Highest Hanging Fruit by 2030 Gary Milante, Barry B. Hughes, and Alison Burt 2016

Stability: International Journal of Security and Development

Changing Policy for a Changing Climate: The Social Implications of Rapid Glacial Recession in Peru Peter Oesterling 2015

Yale Journal of International Affairs

Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50 Years Devin K. Joshi, Barry B. Hughes, and Timothy D. Sisk 2015

World Development

International Futures (IFs) and integrated, long-term forecasting of global transformations Barry B. Hughes 2015


Opportunities and Challenges of a World with Negligible Senescence Barry B. Hughes, Randall Kuhn, Eli S. Margolese-Malin, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano. 2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

The Roads Ahead: Narratives for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Describing World Futures in the 21st Century Brian C. O'Neill, Elmar Kriegler, Kristie L. Ebi, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Keywan Riahi, Dale S. Rothman, Bas J. Van Ruijven, et al. 2015

Global Environmental Change

Challenges to Adaptation: a Fundamental Concept for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and Beyond Dale S. Rothman, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Vanessa J. Schweizer, and Beth A. Bee 2014

Climatic Change

Enhancing the Relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Research Bas J. Van Ruijven, Marc A. Levy, Arun Agrawal, Frank Biermann, Joern Birkmann, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, et al. 2014

Climatic Change

Scenarios for Vulnerability: Opportunities and Constraints in the Context of Climate Change and Disaster Risk Joern Birkmann, Susan L. Cutter, Dale S. Rothman, Torsten Welle, Matthias Garschagen, et al. 2013

Climatic Change

Exploring Future Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development Barry B. Hughes, Mohammod T. Irfan, Jonathan D. Moyer, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano 2012


ICTs: Do They Contribute to Increased Carbon Emissions? Jonathan D. Moyer and Barry B. Hughes 2012

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Producing State of the Future Indexes Using the International Futures Model Theodore Gordon, Barry B. Hughes, José R. Solórzano, and Mark Stelzner 2011

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Projections of Global Health Outcomes from 2005 to 2060 Using the International Futures Integrated Forecasting Model Barry B. Hughes, Randall Kuhn, Cecilia M. Peterson, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano. 2011

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Assessing Strategies for Reducing Poverty Barry B. Hughes and Mohammod T. Irfan 2007

International Studies Review

Sustainable Futures: Policies for Global Development Barry B. Hughes and Peter D. Johnston 2005


Choices in the Face of Uncertainty: The International Futures (IFs) Model Barry B. Hughes 2001


Global Social Transformation: The Sweet Spot, the Steady Slog, and the Systemic Shift Barry B. Hughes 2001

Economic Development and Cultural Change

The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project Barry B. Hughes 1999

Simulation & Gaming

Rough Road Ahead: Global Transformations in the 21st Century Barry B. Hughes 1997

Futures Research Quarterly

International Futures (IFs): History and Status Barry B. Hughes 1988

Social Science Computer Review

World Models: The Bases of Difference Barry B. Hughes 1985

International Studies Quarterly