A Model for Global Forecasting

 

At the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, our mission is to explore, understand, and shape alternative futures of global change and human development. As part of this pursuit, we have built the International Futures (IFs) model, the most sophisticated and comprehensive forecasting modeling system available to the public. IFs uses our best understanding of global systems to produce forecasts for 186 countries to the year 2100.

 

Our team, based at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, works with organizations around the world who share our interest in long-term, integrated analysis of development, security, and sustainability issues.

 

Shape Realistic Expectations About the Future

At the Pardee Center, we hope to shape future development agendas in three major ways.

First, we work to foster more realistic expectations about how systems develop and interact, and how uncertainties--like policy decisions--might influence the future. Unfortunately, no policy can eradicate extreme poverty overnight, eliminate all domestic conflict next year, or achieve a sustainable relationship with the environment in the next decade. By using IFs, we can look years ahead with a more informed, discerning eye. As a result, IFs can help policymakers set goals that are not only optimistic and aggressive, but also reasonable.

Second, we hope to shape a community of IFs users who can work with the IFs system and expand its influence. We have trainings in Denver and around the world, which encourage other analysts and forecasters to use and improve our system's capacity. Our team has worked hard to keep the IFs software free, open-source, and available to all; our staff is always available to help with IFs use.

Finally, through our partnerships in analysis and system development, we conduct our own analysis that helps private and public organizations to make more informed decisions.