February Updates from the Pardee Center

Date: 
2014

The Frederick S. Pardee Center is having a great new year! From Arrow Electronics to the Western Cape, our staff has been hard at work on a number of exciting projects. We're also nearing the launch of our new website, where you'll be able to access the International Futures (IFs) modeling system and learn about how our center is helping others to explore, understand, and shape the world around us.

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Barry Hughes helps celebrate Frederick S. Pardee’s gift to Boston University

On Thursday, February 6, Frederick S. Pardee Center Director Barry Hughes will join Frederick S. Pardee in Santa Monica, California, to help him celebrate his latest endowment to Boston University. According to the BU website, Pardee matched the largest single gift in the university’s history with his donation of $25 million, which will establish the new The Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. The school will be part of BU’s College of Art & Sciences and is set to open this fall. As always, we would like to thank Pardee for his lasting support of our own center, based at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School.

Jonathan Moyer speaks at World Affairs Council Hilton Head

On January 10, 2014, Frederick S. Pardee Center Associate Director Jonathan Moyer delivered a presentation to members of the World Affairs Council of Hilton Head (WACHH) titled, “Forecasting Global Shifts in Hegemony and the Changing Composition of National Power.” During his talk, which was held on Hilton Head Island in South Carolina, Moyer highlighted the difficulties that arise from attempts to measure global power dynamics and explained how the International Futures (IFs) modeling system helps to address some of these challenges. Moyer joined the ranks of other honored WACHH speakers of the past, including former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, Mathew Burrows, lead author of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report, and reporter Stephen Kinzer. You can find an audio transcript of Moyer’s talk on the WACHH website.

African Futures Project publishes latest brief on fracking in South Africa

Late last month, the African Futures Project launched a new report, “Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?,” which explores the long-term economic and environmental effects of various levels of shale gas production in the country. Using the International Futures "IFs" integrated modeling system, the authors created three potential scenarios. The "Base Case" scenario assumes no shale gas production, while the "Shale Boom" scenario forecasts high levels of shale gas production through hydraulic fracturing. The third scenario, called the "Blue Bridge," forecasts limited shale gas production and the adoption of a tax to promote renewable energy. “With this tax in place, the annual investments in renewable energy could drive production up to over 1.6 BBOE by 2050, making it a larger source of South African energy than even coal today,” the paper states. Read more about the authors’ work on South Africa’s Business Day Live website, or listen to Moyer discuss the brief here.

This paper is the third in a series of three that examines South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) 2030. The first analyzed the feasibility of the NDP's GDP growth target of 5.4 percent average, and the second reexamined the NDP's long-term estimates of South Africa's population and migration. The series is funded by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.

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Happy New Year from the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures