Barry B. Hughes, Ph.D., Director
Dr. Hughes is the Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and is John Evans Professor at the Josef Korbel School for International Studies at the University of Denver. His principal research interests are in the areas of (1) global change, (2) computer simulation models for economic, energy, food, population, environmental, and socio-political forecasting, and (3) policy analysis. The fundamental concerns that synthesize these various interests are (1) developing effective response to long-term global change and (2) improving the long-term human condition. He has developed a widely used computer simulation called International Futures (IFs) for study of long-term issues by students and policy makers.
- B.S. Stanford University, Department of Mathematics, 1967
- M.A. University of Minnesota, Department of Political Science, 1969
- Ph.D. University of Minnesota, Department of Political Science, 1970
Dr. Barry B. Hughes is John Evans Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. He served the university as Vice Provost for Graduate Studies during the 1990s. Dr. Hughes earned a B.S. in Mathematics from Stanford in 1967 (distinction) and his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Minnesota in 1970.
His principal interests are in (1) global change, (2) computer simulation models for economic, energy, food, population, environmental, and socio-political forecasting, and (3) policy analysis. The fundamental concerns that synthesize these interests are (1) developing effective response to long-term global change and (2) improving the long-term human condition. He has developed International Futures (IFs), the widely used computer simulation for study of long-term national, regional, and global issues. He has supported the U.S. National Intelligence Council's reports to the President on Mapping the Global Futures 2020, Global Trends 2025, and Global Trends 2030. He provided long-term global forecasting for the United Nations Environment Programme's Global Environment Outlook 4. He was a principal researcher in European Commission projects on the New Economy and on Information and Communications Technology. He has contributed research to projects of RAND, the Central Intelligence Agency, the United Nations Human Development Report, United States Institute of Peace, and many other organizations.
Dr. Hughes has taught in Costa Rica and China. He has written or co-authored The Domestic Context of American Foreign Policy (Freeman 1978), World Modeling (Lexington 1980), World Futures (Johns Hopkins 1985), Disarmament and Development (Prentice-Hall 1990), Continuity and Change in World Politics (Prentice-Hall 1991, 1994, 1997, 2000), International Futures (Westview 1993, 1996, 1999), Exploring and Shaping International Futures (Paradigm 2006), Reducing Global Poverty (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2009), Advancing Global Education (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2010), Improving Global Health (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2011), as well as articles in publications including World Politics, International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, Futures, L'Express, Energy Policy, Policy Studies Review, International Political Science Review, Simulation and Gaming, Economic Development and Cultural Change, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. His co-authored manuscript Strengthening Governance Globally will be published in 2013.
Contact: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Janet Dickson is a Research Associate for the Frederick S. Pardee Center. Her primary focus has been on the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series. She also serves as the Center’s budget director.
- B.A. Occidental College, Department of Psychology, 1964
- M.S.W. University of Denver, Graduate School of Social Work, 1968
Janet Dickson has been at the University of Denver since 1971. Her first appointment was with the DU-affiliated Social Welfare Research Institute, where she authored a series of rural social policy papers. She later joined a team at the DU Center for Social Research and Development, whose work with tribal members culminated in the Indian Child Welfare Act passed in 1978. Subsequently she worked on a number of projects funded by the Administration on Aging and was instrumental in developing the DU Institute for Gerontology.
Following those activities, Janet joined the central administration of the University, first starting a DU Office of Institutional Research and later serving for 13 years as the University’s first Associate Provost for Budget and Planning. More recently she was affiliated directly with the Women’s College as Director of Special Projects. For the past four years, Janet has been a Research Associate with the Pardee Center, where she is primarily involved with the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series. She was a co-author of the education volume and in-house editor and production point-person for the health volume. She is currently a member of the team responsible for the forthcoming (2013) PPHP volume on global infrastructure. Her particular interests are in women’s education and the various ways in which colleges and universities contribute to human and social development.
Phone: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Mohammod Irfan has worked with the IFs model for over 12 years and has been responsible for developing important core features in the model, but he is specifically responsible for the enhanced Education Model. Mohammod’s interests are specific to the modeling of human capital, especially education.
- M.S. Dhaka University, Bangladesh, Department of Physics
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies
- Ph.D. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies
Mohammod started working with the IFs model in Fall 1999 and has been responsible for important changes throughout the model, and is specifically responsible for the enhanced Education Model. The Education Model simulates educational flows and the resultant human capital stocks for 182 countries for alternative assumptions about uncertainties and interventions over the full time horizon of the IFs model. Additionally, Mohammod has worked on developing core features of the standalone version and played an advising role as the standalone version was moved onto the web. Mohammod's academic interests are specific to the modeling of human capital, especially education. Contact Mohammod with questions that relate specifically to education forecasts within IFs as well as questions about forward linkages from the education model to other models within IFs.
University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Eli Margolese-Malin is a Research Associate at the Frederick S. Pardee Center. His work has primarily centered around the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series, in particular, the forth volume, Building Global Infrastructure. He is currently working in a supporting role on the fifth volume and for the ongoing SENS project. His interests span a wide range of topics related to the long-range future of humanity including space colonization and transhumanism.
- B.A. University of North Carolina at Asheville, Political Science, Creative Writing, 2007
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of international Studies, 2011 Concentrations in Futures Studies, Environmental Policy, International Development, and Comparative Politics
Eli joined the IFs team in September of 2009. He graduated from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver with an M.A. in International Studies in 2011. His studies centered on developing the linkages between environmental change, global warming in particular, and intrastate conflict. He currently fills a number of roles at the Pardee Center, from ICT support person, to researcher, writer, and editor.
Contact: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Jonathan D. Moyer
- B.A. University of Bluffton, Bluffton Ohio, International Business, 2002
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2007
- Ph.D. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2012
Dr. Jonathan D. Moyer is Research Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School and Associate Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver. His research focuses on measuring and modeling international relations theory by analyzing trends and pressures driving international conflict (global power transition, climate change, demographic shifts, state failure, and peak oil) by formalizing assumptions and building scenarios within the International Futures model (IFs). While his research focuses on international relations theory, Jonathan also has published on the following topics: domestic governance and national stability, infrastructure, environmental constraints on human development, malaria, education, ethics and trade, traffic fatalities, economic development, and agricultural development.
Jonathan has been working with IFs since he started his graduate school in Denver in 2005. In this capacity, he has consulted for the US National Intelligence Council, the European Commission, the United States Institute of Peace, the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), the government of Slovenia, the government of Kosovo, and various governmental organizations in South Africa. He has led many projects that have extended the IFs model through data gathering, modeling, and analysis with private and public organizations. He is the Lead Co-Principal Investigator on a three year Department of Defense funded Minerva Initiative project that is creating new quantitative measures of country-year vulnerability to abrupt socio-political change that emphasize developmental imbalances.
Contact Info: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Cell Phone: 01-215-872-4927
Office Phone: 01-303-871-2443
- B.A. St. Mary’s College of Maryland, History, 2008
- M.A. candidate, University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies
Carey Neill enrolled at the Korbel School in September of 2011, seeking a degree in Global Finance, Trade and Economic Integration. Before pursuing a master’s degree, Carey spent three years working as a statistician for the Department of Institutional Research at Johns Hopkins University. During this time, he was granted leave from his job to take on internships in Germany in the field of sustainable energy.
Carey graduated from St. Mary’s College of Maryland in the spring of 2008 with a degree in history and mathematics. His research interests, both at IFs and in his studies, include demographic trends and human migration. He is currently working as a member of the Ifs data team as well as participating in trainings on the use of the Ifs model.
- M.S. Candidate. Business Intelligence, University of Denver, expected 2015.
- M.A. International Studies, University of Denver, 2013.
- B.A. Political Science & International Environmental Studies, West Virginia University, 2011.
Mickey Rafa joined the IFs team in December 2011 as a Research Assistant. In the summer of 2012, he was involved in the diplometrics project, which sought to measure the membership of international governmental organizations over time. Mickey began work with the sub-national forecasting project with the Western Cape Provincial Government in South Africa in the fall of 2012. Mickey’s current professional interest is in producing sub-national forecasts within IFs and learning validation techniques of forecast results.
Mickey’s academic concentrations are in development forecasting, international political economy, and business information systems. Past research experience includes the causes of alliance longevity, and various forecast projects on development in Africa and Eastern Europe. Mickey co-authored a policy brief on the future of human development in the Western Cape Province of South Africa in the spring of 2013.
Dr. Rothman is the Senior Scientist at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and Associate Professor at the Josef Korbel School for International Studies, University of Denver. His work focuses on global long-term interactions between the environment and human development.
- B.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Ph.D. Cornell University, Department of Agricultural Economics
Dale S. Rothman is an Associate Professor in the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Senior Scientist with the Pardee Center for International Futures. Dale oversaw the development of the fourth volume in the PPHP Series, Building Global Infrastructure, and also contributed to the third volume, Improving Global Health. He is also currently working with using IFs in the context of the development of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) as part of an international process of developing new scenarios for climate change research.
Dale has been pursuing research and teaching in the areas of integrated assessment and ecological economics for two decades. He has held positions in the US, Canada, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. His recent research has focused on the application of scenario analysis and other foresight tools to issues of sustainable development at multiple scales. He coordinated the scenario development for the fourth Global Environmental Outlook and has also been involved in more specific work on the impacts of climate change, the environmental Kuznets' curve hypothesis, and sustainability indicators. He has a strong interest in addressing issues of agency versus structure to better understand the interplay between natural and social systems and exploring in depth the potential for agent-based modeling for this purpose. Dale is formerly the vice-president of The Integrated Assessment Society and is currently a member of the University of Denver's Sustainability Council.
Contact Info: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Office Phone: 01-303-997-2678
José Solórzano has is a Senior Consultant with the Frederick S. Pardee Center. He is a substantive contributor to the code and graphical interface of the standalone version and to the developed of the web version of IFs. His interests include … . He lives and works in San Salvador, El Salvador.
- B.S. UCA, El Salvador, Industrial Engineering 1997
- M.S. University of Denver, Department of Computer Sciences, 2003
- M.S. University of Denver, Department of Finance, 2005
José Solórzano has worked with IFs since March of 2001 making substantive changes to both the standalone version of the software and being responsible for the transformation of this standalone version to a web version. He has also been a key contributor to improvements made to the graphical user interface (GUI) allowing for display features such as the Packaged Display, Poverty Display and SAM Display, among others, to be available. Academically, José is interested in Financial Modeling and Financial Crisis Analysis. He can be contacted if you have technical or implementation questions as to how to use the IFs model, or about the forthcoming Health Model that is currently being incorporated into IFs. He lives in San Salvador, El Salvador and can be contacted in English, Spanish or French.