Barry B. Hughes, Ph.D., Director
Dr. Barry B. Hughes is John Evans Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Dr. Hughes earned a B.S. in Mathematics from Stanford and his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Minnesota. He served the University of Denver as Vice Provost for Graduate Studies during the 1990s. His principal interests are in (1) global change, (2) computer simulation models for economic, energy, food, population, environmental, and socio-political forecasting, and (3) policy analysis. The fundamental concerns that synthesize these interests are (1) developing effective response to long-term global change and (2) improving the long-term human condition. He developed International Futures (IFs), the widely-used computer simulation for study of long-term national, regional, and global issues.
Director, on sabbatical during 2015-2016 academic year
- B.S. Stanford University, Department of Mathematics, 1967, Other Concentrations: Political Science and German
- M.A. University of Minnesota, Department of Political Science, 1969
- Ph.D. University of Minnesota, Department of Political Science, 1970, Fields of concentration: International Relations, Comparative Politics, and Political Behavior. Supporting Programs: History and Sociology. Dissertation on "The Study of Regional Integration: Subconcepts and Research Methodology," October, 1970
Dr. Hughes has supported the U.S. National Intelligence Council's reports to the President on Mapping the Global Futures 2020, Global Trends 2025, and Global Trends 2030. He provided long-term global forecasting for the United Nations Environment Programme's Global Environment Outlook 4. He provided background research papers and forecasting content used in the United Nations Human Development Reports (2011 and 2013). He was a principal researcher in European Commission projects on the New Economy and on Information and Communications Technology. He has contributed research to projects of RAND, the Central Intelligence Agency, United States Institute of Peace, Peru's National Center for Strategic Planning (CEPLAN) and many other organizations.
Dr. Hughes has written or co-authored The Domestic Context of American Foreign Policy (Freeman 1978), World Modeling (Lexington 1980), World Futures (Johns Hopkins 1985), Disarmament and Development (Prentice-Hall 1990), Continuity and Change in World Politics (Prentice-Hall 1991, 1994, 1997, 2000), International Futures (Westview 1993, 1996, 1999), Exploring and Shaping International Futures (Paradigm 2006), Reducing Global Poverty (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2009), Advancing Global Education (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2010), Improving Global Health (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2011), Building Global Infrastructure (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2013), Strengthening Governance Globally (Paradigm and Oxford University Press, 2014) as well as articles in publications including World Politics, International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, Futures, L'Express, Energy Policy, Policy Studies Review, International Political Science Review, Simulation and Gaming, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Sustainability, Climatic Change, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and World Development.
Contact: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
- B.A. St. Mary’s College of Maryland, History, 2008
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2013
- Ph.D. candidate, University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies
Carey Neill enrolled at the Korbel School in September of 2011, seeking a degree in Global Finance, Trade and Economic Integration. Before pursuing a master’s degree, Carey spent three years working as a statistician for the Department of Institutional Research at Johns Hopkins University. During this time, he was granted leave from his job to take on internships in Germany in the field of sustainable energy.
Carey graduated from St. Mary’s College of Maryland in the spring of 2008 with a degree in history and mathematics. His research interests include international political economy and state fragility.
Dr. Rothman is the Senior Scientist at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and Associate Professor at the Josef Korbel School for International Studies, University of Denver. His work focuses on global long-term interactions between the environment and human development.
- B.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Ph.D. Cornell University, Department of Agricultural Economics
Dale S. Rothman is an Associate Professor in the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Senior Scientist with the Pardee Center for International Futures. Dale oversaw the development of the fourth volume in the PPHP Series, Building Global Infrastructure, and also contributed to the third volume, Improving Global Health. He is also currently working with using IFs in the context of the development of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) as part of an international process of developing new scenarios for climate change research.
Dale has been pursuing research and teaching in the areas of integrated assessment and ecological economics for two decades. He has held positions in the US, Canada, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. His recent research has focused on the application of scenario analysis and other foresight tools to issues of sustainable development at multiple scales. He coordinated the scenario development for the fourth Global Environmental Outlook and has also been involved in more specific work on the impacts of climate change, the environmental Kuznets' curve hypothesis, and sustainability indicators. He has a strong interest in addressing issues of agency versus structure to better understand the interplay between natural and social systems and exploring in depth the potential for agent-based modeling for this purpose. Dale is formerly the vice-president of The Integrated Assessment Society and is currently a member of the University of Denver's Sustainability Council.
Contact Info: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Office Phone: 01-303-997-2678
- B.S. in Physics and Spanish from Bates College, Lewiston, Maine, 2009
- M.A. in Global Finance, Trade and Economic Integration, University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2014
David K. Bohl began working with the Pardee Center in the summer of 2012. Since then he has worked closely with the Peruvian Strategic Planning Center (CEPLAN) to increase their forecasting capabilities for use in the country's 2030 Plan and 2050 Vision, with a particular focus on developing a dynamic representation the informal economy. His other focuses include the development of a crowd-sourced data analytics platform (the DataGator), intelligence community projects aimed at creating a quantitative space for the measurement and analysis of international relation, and work extending the modeling and forecasting capabilities of the IFs model to better assess the risks and benefits we face in a world increasingly reliant on ICT and Cyber technologies.
Eli Margolese-Malin is a Research Associate at the Frederick S. Pardee Center. His work has primarily focused on providing writing, editing, and research support for many different projects, including the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series, the SENS project, FuturesCape Policy Briefs, and the CEPLAN project. His interests span a wide range of topics related to the long-term future of humanity, including space colonization, transhumanism and the environment.
- B.A. University of North Carolina at Asheville, Literature (Creative Writing) and Political Science, 2007
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, International Studies, 2011, Concentrations in Futures Studies, Global Environmental Policy, International Development, and Comparative Politics
Eli joined the IFs team in September of 2009. He graduated from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, in 2011 with an M.A. in International Studies. His studies centered on developing the linkages between environmental change—global climate change in particular—and intrastate conflict.
Associate Director, and Acting Director for 2015-2016 academic year
- B.A. University of Bluffton, Bluffton Ohio, International Business, 2002
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2007
- Ph.D. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2012
Jonathan D. Moyer is Research Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Associate Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. He works in three areas, all of which extend and use the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment platform. Jonathan aids the strategic planning efforts of various countries, international organizations, and corporations. This funded research has supported analysis for groups like the Arrow Electronics, New Partnership for African Development, USAID, and the Western Cape provincial government of South Africa. He also leads the creation of new data and tools to better understand and analyze international relations theory. This funded research has supported the creation of many new data series including contributions to documents such as the U.S. National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030 report. Jonathan also researches the impact of developmental imbalances on state failure and fragility. He is Lead Co-PI on a three-year Minerva-funded research grant that began in the fall of 2014.
Jonathan has been working with IFs since he started his MA program at the University of Denver in the fall of 2005. In addition to organizations listed above, he has consulted for the European Commission, Government of Kosovo, Government of Slovenia, Institute for Security Studies, and United States Institute of Peace.
Contact Info: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
Cell Phone: 01-215-872-4927
Office Phone: 01-303-871-2443
José Solórzano has is a Senior Consultant with the Frederick S. Pardee Center. He is a substantive contributor to the code and graphical interface of the standalone version and to the developed of the web version of IFs. His interests include … . He lives and works in San Salvador, El Salvador.
- B.S. UCA, El Salvador, Industrial Engineering 1997
- M.S. University of Denver, Department of Computer Sciences, 2003
- M.S. University of Denver, Department of Finance, 2005
José Solórzano has worked with IFs since March of 2001 making substantive changes to both the standalone version of the software and being responsible for the transformation of this standalone version to a web version. He has also been a key contributor to improvements made to the graphical user interface (GUI) allowing for display features such as the Packaged Display, Poverty Display and SAM Display, among others, to be available. Academically, José is interested in Financial Modeling and Financial Crisis Analysis. He can be contacted if you have technical or implementation questions as to how to use the IFs model, or about the forthcoming Health Model that is currently being incorporated into IFs. He lives in San Salvador, El Salvador and can be contacted in English, Spanish or French.
- M.S. Candidate. Business Analytics, University of Denver, expected 2016.
- M.A. International Studies, University of Denver, 2013.
- B.A. Political Science & International Studies, West Virginia University, 2011.
Mickey Rafa joined the IFs team in December 2011 as a Research Assistant. In the summer 2012, he was involved in the Diplometrics project, which sought to measure the membership of international governmental organizations over time. Mickey began work with the sub-national forecasting project with the Western Cape Provincial Government in South Africa in the fall of 2012. Mickey became a full-time staff member at the Pardee Center in November 2013. Mickey’s current professional interests include developing business intelligence tools, public health, and geospatial analysis.
Mohammod Irfan has worked with the IFs model for over 12 years and has been responsible for developing important core features in the model, but he is specifically responsible for the enhanced Education Model. Mohammod’s interests are specific to the modeling of human capital, especially education.
- M.S. Dhaka University, Bangladesh, Department of Physics
- M.A. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies
- Ph.D. University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies
Mohammod started working with the IFs model in Fall 1999 and has been responsible for important changes throughout the model, and is specifically responsible for the enhanced Education Model. The Education Model simulates educational flows and the resultant human capital stocks for 182 countries for alternative assumptions about uncertainties and interventions over the full time horizon of the IFs model. Additionally, Mohammod has worked on developing core features of the standalone version and played an advising role as the standalone version was moved onto the web. Mohammod's academic interests are specific to the modeling of human capital, especially education. Contact Mohammod with questions that relate specifically to education forecasts within IFs as well as questions about forward linkages from the education model to other models within IFs.
University of Denver, Denver, Colorado 80208
- B.S. Economics, B.A. International Relations, Gonzaga University, Spokane, WA, 2009
- M.A. Candidate in International Studies, University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, 2013
Sara Turner graduated from Gonzaga University in 2009 with a dual degree in economics and international relations. After completing her degree, she volunteered with the International Rescue Committee’s Immigration branch in Seattle, WA before moving to Colorado in the summer of 2011 to attend the University of Denver. She is currently pursuing an MA in International Studies with a focus on International Political Economy.
Prior to joining the IFs team she served as a research assistant for Dr. Randall Kuhn, the director of the Global Health Affairs program at the Josef Korbel School. Her research interests include human capital development, the social determinants of health, and applied statistics.