African Futures

The African Futures Project is an ongoing collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Headquartered in Pretoria, South Africa, ISS is a pan-African think-tank focused on issues of human security. The Pardee Center and ISS collaborate on research projects and publications across a broad range of human security and human development topics, as indicated below.

Africa has the highest prevalence of communicable diseases in the world. In 2015, more than three times as many people died from AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than ten times as many people died from malaria as in the rest of the world combined. Non-communicable diseases are also increasing on the continent. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the effects on human development of Africa’s achieving targets 3.3 and 3.4 of the Sustainable Development Goals.

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It is likely that South Africa is overexploiting its water resources at the national level, as water withdrawals currently exceed reliable supply. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper forecasts that withdrawals in all three sectors (municipal, industrial and agricultural) will increase over the next 20 years.

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Access to water, sanitation and hygiene is indispensable to development, but what will it take for Africa to achieve universal access in 15 years? This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore Sustainable Development Goal 6, which promises water, sanitation and hygiene to all by 2030.

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This brief explores potential development paths for Western Cape education through 2040.

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This policy brief analyses two sets of challenges, unequal access and inadequate technology, skills and governance, in order to explore some of the outcomes of pursuing policies designed to address them – first in isolation and then in combination.

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This policy brief explores future challenges facing electricity in South Africa, and offers potential solutions.

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This paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa (the ‘Big Five’) over the next 25 years.

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This paper updates an earlier AFP exploration of the possibilities for eradication of extreme poverty on the African continent. 

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This paper presents a summary of recent conflict trends in Africa, followed by alternative forecasts of future conflict trends and their implications.

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This paper explores the implications of an emerging water crisis in South Africa and steps that that might be taken to prevent/ameliorate that crisis. 

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This paper explores the possibilities for the eradication of extreme poverty on the African continent. 

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Africa must think more systematically about long-term trends and the future in order to take full advantage of opportunities from economic growth.

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This monograph uses the International Futures forecasting system to provide long-term forecasts for 26 "more fragile" African countries.

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This paper explores both the positive and negative possibilities for South Africa of shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing or "fracking."

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This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. 

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This paper explores South Africa's fertility, mortality, and migration outlooks, with a particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding migration.

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This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore potential paths of human development in South Africa's Western Cape to the year 2040. 

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Exploration of the prospects for 26 conflict-ridden African countries shows them to be on a slow trajectory to long-term peace and development.

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This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to analyze and forecast trends in intrastate conflict in Africa up to the year 2050.

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This brief explores not only policy choices to facilitate increased crop production in Africa, but also interventions to direct increases in crops to meet nutritional needs within Africa. 

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This policy brief explores the possible cumulative beneficial impacts by 2050 if Africa were able to eliminate malarial infection by 2025. 

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This brief analyzes the developmental risk factors contributing to rapid increases in road traffic accidents in African countries. It then identifies policy interventions to address these risks and forecasts their beneficial results.

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This monograph draws on the resources of the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center's International Futures modeling system to provide an extensive analysis of African development to the year 2050. 

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This paper presents two scenarios for the continued advancement of education in Africa and explores their impacts on development.

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This paper explores the impact of increased access to clean water and sanitation on development in Africa.

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