United Nations Population Division (UNPD)

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About the UNPD

The Population Division was established in the earlier years of the United Nations to serve as the Secretariat of the then Population Commission, created in 1946. Over the years, the Division has played an active role in the intergovernmental dialogue on population and development, producing constantly updated demographic estimates and projections for all countries, including data essential for the monitoring of the progress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals, developing and disseminating new methodologies, leading the substantive preparations for the United Nations major conferences on population and development as well as the annual sessions of the Commission on Population and Development .

Series pulled from UNPD

Table Source
SeriesInfMortMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesLifExpectFemale http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesLifExpectMale http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesTFRMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
SeriesPopulation UNPD 2015 (DSR added Taiwan from WEO)
SeriesForecastandHistInfMortMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastandHistPopulationBothSexesConstUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastandHistPopulationBothSexesHighUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastandHistPopulationBothSexesLowUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastandHistPopulationBothSexesMedUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastCDR0MigrationUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRConstFertUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRConstMortalityUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRHighUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRlowUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRMedUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRNoChangeUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastCDRreplacementUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatio0MigrationUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioConstMortUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioNoChangeUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOld0MigrationUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldConstFertUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldConstMortalityUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldHighUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldLowUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldMedUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldNoChangeUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioOldReplacementUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioYoungConstFertUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioYoungHighUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioYoungLowUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioYoungMedUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastDependencyRatioYoungReplacementUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastFertility0MigrationUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertility0MigrationUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastFertilityConstMortalityUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityConstMortalityUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastfertilityConstUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityConstUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityConstUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastfertilityHighUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityHighUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityHighUNPD2015ANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastfertilityLowUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityLowUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityLowUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastfertilityMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityMedUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastFertilityNoChangeUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityNoChangeUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastFertilityReplacementUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastFertilityReplacementUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastInfantMortalityMedUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastLifeExpMedBothSexesUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastLifeExpMedBothSexesUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastLifeExpMedFemaleUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastLifeExpMedFemaleUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastLifeExpMedMaleUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastLifeExpMedMaleUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastLifExpectFemaleMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesForecastLifExpectFemaleUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesForecastLifExpectMaleMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesForecastLifExpectMaleUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesForecastLifExpectMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesForecastLifExpectUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesForecastNetMigrantsUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastNetMigrationMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastNetMigrationRateMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastNetMigrationRateUNPD2015RevANN http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexes0MigrationUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexes0MigrationUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesConstMortalityUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesConstMortalityUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesConstUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesConstUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesHighUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesHighUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesLowUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesLowUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesMedUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesNoChangeUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesNoChangeUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesReplacementUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopBothSexesReplacementUNPD2015Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastPopFemale0MigrationUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleConstMortalityUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleConstUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleHighUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleLowUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleNoChangeUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopFemaleReplacementUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMale0MigrationUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleConstMortalityUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleConstUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleHighUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleLowUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleMedUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleNoChangeUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopMaleReplacementUNPD2012Rev http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopulationBothSexesConstUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopulationBothSexesHighUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopulationBothSexesLowUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastPopulationBothSexesMedUNPD2010Rev http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatio0MigrationUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioConstFertUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioConstMortalityUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioHighUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioLowUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioMedUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioNoChangeUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesForecastYouthDependencyRatioReplacementUNPD2015Rev UNPD WPP 2015 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/
SeriesLifExpect http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesLifExpectFemaleMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesLifExpectMaleMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesLifExpectMedUNPD http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm
SeriesPopulation15PlusMill UNPD
SeriesPopulation15to29Mill UNPD
SeriesPopulation15to64% UNPD
SeriesPopulation15to64Mill UNPD
SeriesPopulation65Plus UNPD
SeriesPopulation65Plus% UNPD
SeriesPopulation65PlusMill UNPD
SeriesPopulationElderlyDependence% UNPD
SeriesPopulationUnder15Mill UNPD
SeriesPopulationUnder5Mill UNPD
SeriesPopulationUNFilled UNPD 2010 Rev Filled with WDI and Ifs
SeriesPopYouthBulgeBy15 UNPD
SeriesPopYouthBulgeBy30 UNPD
SeriesPopYouthBulgeByTotal UNPD
SeriesPopYouthDependency% UNPD

Instructions on pulling UNPD data

Life expectancy and TFR data

Description of Data 

Life expectancy and fertility rate data are available for 5 year intervals (e.g. 1955-1960, 1960-1965) up to latest year (2015). Since the datasets are estimates, the data is available for five year intervals up to the year 2100. For the purpose of IFs ,a simple average needs to be computed in order to arrive at a value for every 5 year interval (e.g. Average for 1955-60 value and 1960-65 value will be recorded under the year 1960 for IFS). On the basis of these 5 year intervals, IFs computes the annual values for life expectancy and TFR using an interpolation function.  

Methodology used by UNPD

The life expectancy at birth is defined by UNPD as the number of years a newborn infant could expect to live if prevailing patterns of age-specific mortality rates at the time of birth stay the same throughout the infant’s life. The life expectancy data is computed by UNPD on the basis of the estimated levels of infant and child mortality and after taking into consideration special circumstances in respective nations. For example, the mortality impact of AIDS has been factored in when computing the life expectancy at birth of Rwanda.  

The UNPD model for computation of TFR  is  probablistic and makes use of historical demographic data .The 2015 revision in the methodology, also takes into account levels of development across countries and considers cases where fertility rates may stay constant or in some cases also rise in the future. For example, the fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa has not fallen as fast as the rate in other regions in the world on account of high infant mortality from communicable diseases and low levels of human development. 

Life expectancy and TFR in IFs

Life expectancy is driven by income levels (GDP per capita at PPP) , government spending on health and education (GDS), civilian damage from wars, population and mortality. Life expectancy shares an especially strong relationship with income as evidenced by an r square value of  0.63. TFR in IFs is primarily driven by female education , GDP per capita at PPP, population levels. The chart below shows the relationship between GDP per capita and life expectancy across all nations in 2014.


Life expectancy compared to GDP per capita at PPP in 2014

RTENOTITLE  

Source: International Futures 7.22


Since the data in IFs is calculated on the basis of assigned averages between two time periods, it must be noted that data won’t be available for the period succeeding the latest year (e.g. for the 2015 update, latest data is available for the 2010-2015 period, but no data is available for 2015-2020 period, thus the average value cannot be calculated.) For the latest period, when computing the average value, the forecast value for the future period is used. (e.g. for 2015, compute the average using 2010-2015 value and the 2015-2020 forecasted value.) While using forecasts,  note that three varieties of forecast values are available from UNPD, one with a low variant, one with a medium variant and one with a high variant. The medium variant is used when computing the average, as this is likely to be the closest to the actual value.  

Data Source

https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ 

Series to be updated in IFs

  1. Series LifExpect
  2. Series LifExpectFemale
  3. Series LifExpectMale
  4. SeriesTFRMedUNPD

Country list to be used

IFs country list



Last updated by : Kanishka Narayan 11th October 2016


Instructions on pulling the UNPD Forecast data