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IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey

The population module:


  • represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
  • calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
  • computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
  • represents migration and HIV/AIDS
  • includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels


The economic module:


  • represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
  • computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
  • is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
  • contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
  • uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
  • utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
  • is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows


The agricultural module:


  • represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
  • maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
  • represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
  • is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
  • overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise


The energy module:


  • portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
  • represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
  • represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
  • portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
  • is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
  • overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise


The two socio-political sub-modules:


Within countries or geographic groupings

  • represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
  • shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
  • represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
  • represents the evolution of democracy
  • represents the prospects for state instability or failure


Between countries or groupings of countries


  • traces changes in power balances across states and regions
  • allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
  • represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries


The implicit environmental module:


  • is distributed throughout the overall model
  • allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions


The implicit technology module:


  • is distributed throughout the overall model
  • allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
  • explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
  • is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending =