Difference between revisions of "Sandbox"

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Among the philosophical premises of the International Futures (IFs) project is that the model cannot be a "black box" to users and be truly useful. Model users must be able to examine the structures of IFs in order (1) to have confidence in them, and (2) learn from them. [[File:IFsOverviewChart.jpg|frame|center|Overview of the IFs model and sub-modules.]]
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= IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey =
 +
 
 +
The '''population''' module:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
 +
*calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
 +
*computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
 +
*represents migration and HIV/AIDS
 +
*includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
The '''economic''' module:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
 +
*computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
 +
*is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
 +
*contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
 +
*uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
 +
*utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
 +
*is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
The '''agricultural''' module:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
 +
*maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
 +
*represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
 +
*is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
 +
*overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
The '''energy''' module:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
 +
*represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
 +
*represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
 +
*portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
 +
*is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
 +
*overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
The two '''socio-political''' sub-modules:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
Within countries or geographic groupings
 +
 
 +
*represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
 +
*shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
 +
*represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
 +
*represents the evolution of democracy
 +
*represents the prospects for state instability or failure
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
Between countries or groupings of countries
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*traces changes in power balances across states and regions
 +
*allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
 +
*represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
The implicit '''environmental''' module:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*is distributed throughout the overall model
 +
*allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
The implicit '''technology''' module:
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
*is distributed throughout the overall model
 +
*allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
 +
*explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
 +
*is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending =

Revision as of 15:29, 22 June 2017

IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey

The population module:


  • represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
  • calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
  • computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
  • represents migration and HIV/AIDS
  • includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels


The economic module:


  • represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
  • computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
  • is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
  • contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
  • uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
  • utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
  • is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows


The agricultural module:


  • represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
  • maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
  • represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
  • is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
  • overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise


The energy module:


  • portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
  • represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
  • represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
  • portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
  • is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
  • overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise


The two socio-political sub-modules:


Within countries or geographic groupings

  • represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
  • shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
  • represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
  • represents the evolution of democracy
  • represents the prospects for state instability or failure


Between countries or groupings of countries


  • traces changes in power balances across states and regions
  • allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
  • represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries


The implicit environmental module:


  • is distributed throughout the overall model
  • allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions


The implicit technology module:


  • is distributed throughout the overall model
  • allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
  • explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
  • is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending =