Difference between revisions of "Result replication instructions: How achievable are human development SDGs on our current path of development?"

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International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term country-specific, regional, and global futures. IFs integrates forecasts across different sub-models, including: population, economy, agriculture, education, energy, sociopolitical, international political, environment, technology, infrastructure, and health. The interconnection of these sub-models allows IFs to simulate how changes in one system lead to changes across all other systems.
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These instructions will help you download and run scenarios that reflect work done in this study. If you would like additional information on specific result replication please direct requests to [mailto:pardee.center@du.edu. pardee.center@du.edu].
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= Specific instructions =
 
= Specific instructions =
  
#Download model
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#Download model and all supplementary files (see below)
 
#Install IFs
 
#Install IFs
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#Add new display lists to IFs (see below)
 
#Run the scenarios (see below)
 
#Run the scenarios (see below)
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#Save the model run (see below)
  
 
= Necessary files =
 
= Necessary files =
  
'''IFs Model: '''Link to download IFs (version specific to publication)
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'''IFs Model: '''[ftp://www.ifs.du.edu/IFs%20with%20Pardee%207_32%20Jan%2013%202018.zip Link to download IFs] (version 7.32)
  
'''Scenario files: '''Link to download SCE files
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'''Variable display lists: '''[ftp://www.ifs.du.edu/Replication%20Files/Pathways/VarListTransmission-Pathways.mdb Link to download display list transmission file]
  
'''Country grouping: '''Link to download country transmission file
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= General Instruction =
  
'''Variable display lists: '''Link to download display list transmission file
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== How to install IFs ==
  
'''Data tables: '''Link to download additional data or project data
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Requirements for installing and running IFs on your computer can be found on our website [https://pardee.du.edu/access-ifs here]. Requirements and instructions on installing IFs on a Mac can be found [https://pardee.du.edu/use-international-futures-ifs-apple-macintoshhttps://pardee.du.edu/use-international-futures-ifs-apple-macintosh here]. 
  
= General Instruction =
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After downloading IFs (as a zipped folder), you will need to extract all the files from the zipped folder. Then double-click 'IFsSetupStarter". This should initiate the installation. After installation, go to 'Start' and select 'IFs' from the list of programs to run IFs.
  
== How to add scenario files ==
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== How to run individual scenarios ==
  
Scenario files can be simply added to IFs once they have been downloaded. Within Window’s File Explorer, access the Local Disk. From here locate the Users file, then choose Public. Within the Public folder will exist the folder which houses all data and files for IFs. Within this folder choose the Scenario folder. Create a new folder and copy over all scenario files that are necessary for the reproduction of desired results.
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Select 'Scenario Analysis' on the top left corner of the IFs home screen. Select 'Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree' from the dropdown menu. This will take you to a new interface that allows for scenario construction as well as the ability to load pre-made scenario files. The SSPs are all pre-made and loaded in the 7.32 version of IFs. To load SSP2 select 'Add Scenario Components' from the header. Select SSP2 using the following path:<br/>World Integrated Scenario Sets > SSP scenarios > SSP2Final
  
== How to add variable lists from a transmission file ==
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Follow the path by clicking '+' to expand the sections.
  
To add a new variable list requires the proper transmission file which should be found with all necessary replication files. Select the Display tab and the Flexible Display sub-option. From this flex display screen select the List Features tab, the Exchange List sub-option, and the Import Lists command. From here select the replications proper transmission file and the proper variable list and click import. The proper lists may now be found in the Flexible Display.
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After the scenario is selected, click 'load'. Select the 'Run Scenario' option. You will be asked if you want to process the parameters in the tree and proceeed to running the scenario. Click 'yes'. This may take several minutes.
  
== How to add country groupings from a transmission File ==
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A screen will load and the user will be prompted to enter the run year, or the time horizon of the projection. Select 2100. Select 'Start Run.'
  
To add a new country group, access the Manage Groups/Countries/Regions through Extended Features. Choose to Change Groupings/Regionalization and select the option to Exchange Groups. Then select the Import Groups option, then select the transmission file that will have been included in necessary materials for replication. From this screen the right groupings may be selected and then imported.
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For more information on running scenarios in IFs, please click&nbsp;[https://pardee.du.edu/wiki/Use_IFs_Download_Scenario_Analysis#Sinlge_Run here].
  
== How to add or update data ==
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== How to save a model run&nbsp;as a new scenario ==
  
To add new data tables into IFs, select Manage Country Data through the Extended Features tab. Then access Import Data (Single Series) through the Historical Data File Processing tab. This will prompt a new form to pop-up. Open the Excel File which contains the data through the Open Excel File tab and select the proper sheet, the proper excel sheet data format option, country-name starting location, and year starting location. If this series is updating a previously existent series in IFs, then select this series under Existing Variables and choose the proper Country Translation table. Once all is finished, select Import.
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After selecting the 'SSP2Final' scenario and running the model to 2100 (instructions above), you will need to save this model run so that you can view later. After the model has run to 2100, click 'Run Successful - Click to Continue'. This will take you back to the homescreen of IFs. Select 'Scenario Analysis' from the header, then select 'File Management' and then select 'SAVE working file as...". Chose a name for this model run, probably something like 'SSP2".&nbsp;
  
== How to add Project Data ==
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== How to add variable lists from a transmission file ==
  
In order to create a new Project Data option, access the ProjectData folder the following location: This PC > Local Disk > Users > Public > IFs > DATA > ProjectData. Copy and paste the new .mdb file to this folder. Project data may then be added through accessing Manage Country Data, Historical Data File Processing, and then Project Data all through the Extended Features Tab. Load Project Data, then select the .mdb file. IFs will then be prompted to rebuild the base, follow this process to successfully update the project data.
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To add a new variable list you will need&nbsp;the proper transmission file, which should be found with all necessary replication files. From the IFs homescreen, select the 'Display' tab and the 'Flexible Display' sub-option from the dropdown. From this Flexible Display screen select the List Features tab, the Exchange List sub-option, and the Import Lists command. From here select the desired&nbsp;transmission file and the proper variable list and click import. The proper lists may now be found in the Flexible Display. For more information on the use of display lists,&nbsp; please click&nbsp; [https://pardee.du.edu/wiki/Flexible_Displays_(Download) here].
  
== How to rebuild the Base Case ==
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== Visualizing results ==
  
Within the Extended Features tab, choose Rebuild Model Base and then select the Rebuild Base sub-option. Select all boxes that apply to the changes that have been made within the IFs system. Leave the year at 2100 and click Rebuild Base. Follow further prompts to begin the rebuild of the model base. From this point, the model must then be run. Select the Scenario Analysis tab, from here select the Run option and the Single Run sub-option. Set the year to 2100 and allow the model to run.
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There are many ways to visualize Base Case and scenario results in IFs. The Flexible Displays allows a user to&nbsp;display&nbsp;a wide variety of projected variables (sometimes in combination with historical data series), create graphs and view tables of these displays. This display also allows the user to compare results across countries, groups, and scenarios.&nbsp;Not all of the variables available in IFs can be found in Flexible Displays;&nbsp;its purpose is to provide users with&nbsp;access to commonly used variables. If you wish to access the full range of variables and parameters, you can do so in&nbsp;Self-Managed Displays. For more information on using Flexible Displays, click [https://pardee.du.edu/wiki/Self-Managed_Display#Flexible_Display_Example here] and for more information on self managed displays, please click [https://pardee.du.edu/wiki/Self-Managed_Display#Display_Options_for_Self-Managed_Display here].
  
== How to run individual scenarios ==
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== Sample results ==
  
Once scenario files have been added to IFs a scenario may then run. Access the Scenario Analysis tab and select Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree. The imported scenario files should appear upon this list. Select the proper scenario, scenario parameters, and dimensions. Should country groupings be desired hit the Using Countries tab. The scenarios effect can then be adjusted to high, low, or a custom level. Once all has been properly selected select the Run Scenario option. The scenario will then load and a screen to select the run year may be selected, generally choose to run scenarios to 2100. When all is selected, Start Run.
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The following instructions will produce a table of results for the nine SDG outcome varaibles&nbsp;accross the five scenarios described in this study. After completeing&nbsp;the above steps, go to "Displays" followed by&nbsp;"Flex Display" in the main menu. In the subsequent window's menu bar, choose&nbsp;"Geography Options" and toggle "Using Groups." Navigate to "Development" under the display category menu, then select the display "SDG Outcome Varaibles." Next, under the geography menu, scroll down and select "World." Choose a horizon of 2050, and then select "IFsBase" and "SSP2" (or whatever you saved your model run as). Finally, click on "Table" at the bottom left of the window. IFs should&nbsp;now display the desired output table.
  
== How to batch run scenarios ==
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= Relevant Documentation =
  
The batch run feature in IFs runs multiple scenarios in succession and saves each resulting run files. To do this, select the ‘Run’ sub-option from ‘Scenario Analysis’ in the main menu bar and then select the option to perform a ‘Batch Run’. From this point all folders contained within the ‘IFs/Scenario’ folder should be visible. Navigate to the desired folder, choose a run horizon, and then press ‘Select.’ IFs will then run each scenario contained within the selected folder save them as a sperate run file.
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'''IFs training manual:''' [https://pardee.du.edu/international-futures-ifs-training-manual Link to IFs Training Manual]
  
== Visualizing results ==
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'''IFs scenario guide:''' [https://pardee.du.edu/guide-scenario-analysis-international-futures-ifs Link to IFs Scenario Guide]
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'''Model documentation:''' [https://pardee.du.edu/node/484 Link to all documentation]
  
There are many ways to visualize Base Case and scenario results in IFs. The Flexible Displays allows a user to select displays that contain a wide variety of forecasted variables (sometimes in combination with historical data series), create graphs and view tables of these displays both singly or in combination with others, and even do analysis using comparison and relationship options in the menus. Not all of the variables available in IFs can be found in Flexible Displays, as its purpose is to provide users with an access to commonly-used variables for forecasting. If you wish to access the full range of variables and parameters, you can do so in&nbsp;Self-Managed Displays.
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'''Relevant code:''' [ftp://www.ifs.du.edu/Replication%20Files/Pathways/IFsCode7_32.zip Link to all code]

Latest revision as of 15:24, 10 May 2018

International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term country-specific, regional, and global futures. IFs integrates forecasts across different sub-models, including: population, economy, agriculture, education, energy, sociopolitical, international political, environment, technology, infrastructure, and health. The interconnection of these sub-models allows IFs to simulate how changes in one system lead to changes across all other systems.

These instructions will help you download and run scenarios that reflect work done in this study. If you would like additional information on specific result replication please direct requests to pardee.center@du.edu.

Specific instructions

  1. Download model and all supplementary files (see below)
  2. Install IFs
  3. Add new display lists to IFs (see below)
  4. Run the scenarios (see below)
  5. Save the model run (see below)

Necessary files

IFs Model: Link to download IFs (version 7.32)

Variable display lists: Link to download display list transmission file

General Instruction

How to install IFs

Requirements for installing and running IFs on your computer can be found on our website here. Requirements and instructions on installing IFs on a Mac can be found here

After downloading IFs (as a zipped folder), you will need to extract all the files from the zipped folder. Then double-click 'IFsSetupStarter". This should initiate the installation. After installation, go to 'Start' and select 'IFs' from the list of programs to run IFs.

How to run individual scenarios

Select 'Scenario Analysis' on the top left corner of the IFs home screen. Select 'Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree' from the dropdown menu. This will take you to a new interface that allows for scenario construction as well as the ability to load pre-made scenario files. The SSPs are all pre-made and loaded in the 7.32 version of IFs. To load SSP2 select 'Add Scenario Components' from the header. Select SSP2 using the following path:
World Integrated Scenario Sets > SSP scenarios > SSP2Final

Follow the path by clicking '+' to expand the sections.

After the scenario is selected, click 'load'. Select the 'Run Scenario' option. You will be asked if you want to process the parameters in the tree and proceeed to running the scenario. Click 'yes'. This may take several minutes.

A screen will load and the user will be prompted to enter the run year, or the time horizon of the projection. Select 2100. Select 'Start Run.'

For more information on running scenarios in IFs, please click here.

How to save a model run as a new scenario

After selecting the 'SSP2Final' scenario and running the model to 2100 (instructions above), you will need to save this model run so that you can view later. After the model has run to 2100, click 'Run Successful - Click to Continue'. This will take you back to the homescreen of IFs. Select 'Scenario Analysis' from the header, then select 'File Management' and then select 'SAVE working file as...". Chose a name for this model run, probably something like 'SSP2". 

How to add variable lists from a transmission file

To add a new variable list you will need the proper transmission file, which should be found with all necessary replication files. From the IFs homescreen, select the 'Display' tab and the 'Flexible Display' sub-option from the dropdown. From this Flexible Display screen select the List Features tab, the Exchange List sub-option, and the Import Lists command. From here select the desired transmission file and the proper variable list and click import. The proper lists may now be found in the Flexible Display. For more information on the use of display lists,  please click  here.

Visualizing results

There are many ways to visualize Base Case and scenario results in IFs. The Flexible Displays allows a user to display a wide variety of projected variables (sometimes in combination with historical data series), create graphs and view tables of these displays. This display also allows the user to compare results across countries, groups, and scenarios. Not all of the variables available in IFs can be found in Flexible Displays; its purpose is to provide users with access to commonly used variables. If you wish to access the full range of variables and parameters, you can do so in Self-Managed Displays. For more information on using Flexible Displays, click here and for more information on self managed displays, please click here.

Sample results

The following instructions will produce a table of results for the nine SDG outcome varaibles accross the five scenarios described in this study. After completeing the above steps, go to "Displays" followed by "Flex Display" in the main menu. In the subsequent window's menu bar, choose "Geography Options" and toggle "Using Groups." Navigate to "Development" under the display category menu, then select the display "SDG Outcome Varaibles." Next, under the geography menu, scroll down and select "World." Choose a horizon of 2050, and then select "IFsBase" and "SSP2" (or whatever you saved your model run as). Finally, click on "Table" at the bottom left of the window. IFs should now display the desired output table.

Relevant Documentation

IFs training manual: Link to IFs Training Manual

IFs scenario guide: Link to IFs Scenario Guide

Model documentation: Link to all documentation

Relevant code: Link to all code