Difference between revisions of "Introduction to IFs"

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Systems Analysis Research Unit (SARU). 1977. ''SARUM 76 Global Modeling Project.'' Departments of the Environment and Transport, 2 Marsham Street, London, 3WIP 3EB.
 
Systems Analysis Research Unit (SARU). 1977. ''SARUM 76 Global Modeling Project.'' Departments of the Environment and Transport, 2 Marsham Street, London, 3WIP 3EB.
 
== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Economics Bibliography</span> ==
 
 
Allen, R. G. D. 1968.&nbsp;''Macro-Economic Theory: A Mathematical Treatment''. New York: St. Martin's Press.
 
 
Barker, T.S. and A.W.A. Peterson, eds. 1987.&nbsp;''The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy''. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
 
 
Barro, Robert J. 1997.&nbsp;''Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study''. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
 
 
Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 1999.&nbsp;''Economic Growth''. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
 
 
Brockmeier, Martina and Channing Arndt (presenter). 2002. Social Accounting Matrices. Powerpoint presentation on GTAP and SAMs (June 21). Found on the web.
 
 
Bussolo, Maurizio, Mohamed Chemingui and David O’Connor. 2002. A Multi-Region Social Accounting Matrix (1995) and Regional Environmental General Equilibrium Model for India (REGEMI). Paris: OECD Development Centre (February). Available at&nbsp;[http://www.oecd.org/dev/technics www.oecd.org/dev/technics].
 
 
Chenery, Hollis, and Moises Syrquin. 1975.&nbsp;''Patterns of Development, 1950-1970''. London: Oxford University Press for the World Bank.
 
 
Chenery, Hollis. 1979.&nbsp;''Structural Change and Development Policy''. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
 
 
Dimaranan, Betina V. and Robert A. McDougall, eds. 2002.&nbsp;''Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base''. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Available at [http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v5/v5_doco.asp http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v5/v5_doco.asp].
 
 
Duchin, Faye. 1998.&nbsp;''Structural Economics: Measuring Change in Technology, Lifestyles, and the Environment''. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
 
 
Globerman, Steven. 2000 (May). Linkages Between Technological Change and Productivity Growth. Industry Canada Research Publications Program: Occasional Paper 23.
 
 
Griffith, Rachel, Stephen Redding, and John Van Reenen. 2000.&nbsp;''Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries''. Institute for Fiscal Studies (January)
 
 
Hughes, Barry B. 1987. "Domestic Economic Processes," in Stuart A. Bremer, ed.,&nbsp;''The Globus Model: Computer Simulation of Worldwide Political Economic Development''(Frankfurt and Boulder: Campus and Westview), pp. 39-158.
 
 
Hughes, Barry B. 2001. “Global Social Transformation: The Sweet Spot, the Steady Slog, and the Systemic Shift,”&nbsp;''Economic Development and Cultural Change''&nbsp;49, No. 2 (January): 423-458.
 
 
Hughes, Barry B. and Anwar Hossain. 2003. "Long-Term Socio-Economic Modeling: With Universal, Globally-Integrated Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) in a General Equilibrium Model Structure." IFs Project Living Document, University of Denver.
 
 
Hughes, Barry B. 2005. "Forecasting Productivity and Growth with International Futures (IFs) Part 1: The Productivity Formulation," Pardee IFs Working Paper 2005.05.01, available at [http://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/WP_2005_05_Productivity_Growth_IFs_Part1_0.pdf http://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/WP_2005_05_Productivity_Growth_IFs_Part1_0.pdf].
 
 
Hughes, Barry B. with Mohammod T. Irfan. 2006. "The Data Pre-Processor of International Futures (IFs). IFs Project Living Document, University of Denver.
 
 
Hughes, Barry B., Mohammod T. Irfan, Haider Khan, Krishna Kumar, Dale S. Rothman, and José Roberto Solórzano. 2009.''&nbsp;Reducing Global Poverty.''&nbsp;vol. 1, Patterns of Potential Human Progress series. Boulder, CO, and New Delhi, India: Paradigm Publishers and Oxford University Press.
 
 
Jansen, Karel and Rob Vos, eds. 1997.&nbsp;''External Finance and Adjustment: Failure and Success in the Developing World''. London: Macmillan Press Ltd.
 
 
Kehoe, Timothy J. 1996. Social Accounting Matrices and Applied General Equilibrium Models. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Working Paper 563.
 
 
Khan, Haider A. 1998.&nbsp;''Technology, Development and Democracy''. Northhampton, Mass: Edward Elgar Publishing Co.
 
 
Kornai, J. 1971.&nbsp;''Anti-Equilibrium''. Amsterdam: North Holland.
 
 
Kuznets, Simon. 1959. “On Comparative Study of Economic Structure and Growth of Nations.” In&nbsp;''The Comparative Study of Economic Growth and Structure''. New York.
 
 
———. 1966.&nbsp;''Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, and Spread,''. New Haven: Yale University Press.
 
 
Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller. 1998 "Life Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition in East Asia." Working Paper for&nbsp;''Population and Economic Change in East Asia&nbsp;''a supplement to Volume 26 of''&nbsp;Population and Development Review.''
 
 
Lee, Ronald D. and Andrew Mason, eds. 2011.&nbsp;''Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective.''&nbsp;Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.&nbsp;
 
 
McMahon, Walter W. 1997.&nbsp;''Education and Development: Measuring the Social Benefits''. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
 
 
Modigliani, Franco. 1976. “Life-cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations,”&nbsp;''American Economic Review'', 76(3), 297–313.
 
 
Narayanna, G., Badri Angel Aguilar, and Robert McDougal, eds. 2012.&nbsp;''Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 8 Data Base.''&nbsp;Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Available at [https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v8/v8_doco.asp https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v8/v8_doco.asp]
 
 
North, Douglass C., John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast. 2009.&nbsp;''Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History''. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
 
 
Pan, Xiaoming. 2000 (January). "Social and Ecological Accounting Matrix: an Empirical Study for China," paper submitted for the Thirteenth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Macerata, Italy, August 21-25, 2000.
 
 
Pesaran, M. Hashem and G. C. Harcourt. 1999. Life and Work of John Richard Nicholas Stone.&nbsp;
 
 
Pistaferri, Luigi. 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, and the Permanent Income Hypothesis,"&nbsp;''The Review of Economics and Statistics''&nbsp;82 (3), August: 465-476. Available at [http://web.stanford.edu/~pista/restat.pdf http://web.stanford.edu/~pista/restat.pdf].
 
 
Pyatt, G. and J.I. Round, eds. 1985.&nbsp;''Social Accounting Matrices: A Basis for Planning''. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.
 
 
Romer, Paul M. 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth,"&nbsp;''Journal of Economic Perspectives''&nbsp;Vol 8, No. 1 (Winter): 3-22.
 
 
Sachs, Jeffrey. 2005.&nbsp;''The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time''. New York, NY: Penguin Press.
 
 
Solow, Robert M. 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,"&nbsp;''Quarterly Journal of Economics''&nbsp;70, 1 (February): 65-94.
 
 
Stone, Richard. 1986. "The Accounts of Society,"''&nbsp;''&nbsp;''Journal of Applied Econometrics''&nbsp;1, no. 1 (January): 5-28.
 
 
Syrquin, Moshe, and Hollis Chenery. 1989. “Three Decades of Industrialization.”&nbsp;''The World Bank Economic Review''&nbsp;3 (2): 145–81.
 
 
Taylor, Lance. 1979.&nbsp;''Macro Models for Developing Countries''. New York: McGraw-Hill.
 
 
Thorbecke, Erik. 2001. "The Social Accounting Matrix: Deterministic or Stochastic Concept?", paper prepared for a conference in honor of Graham Pyatt's retirement, at the Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, Netherlands (November 29 and 30). Available at [http://people.cornell.edu/pages/et17/etpapers.html http://people.cornell.edu/pages/et17/etpapers.html].
 
 
Zhang, Jie, and Junsen Zhang. 2005. “The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence*.”&nbsp;''Scandinavian Journal of Economics''107(1): 45–66. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2005.00394.x.
 
 
Zhang, Jie, and Junsen Zhang. (2009). "Longevity, Retirement, and Capital Accumulation in a Recursive Model with an Application to Mandatory Retirement."&nbsp;''Macroeconomic Dynamics&nbsp;''13: 327-348.
 
  
 
== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Education Bibliography</span> ==
 
== <span style="font-size:x-large;">Education Bibliography</span> ==

Revision as of 17:28, 7 September 2017

Purposes

International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term global trends. It assists with:

  • Understanding the state of the world
  • Exploring trends and considering where they might be taking us
  • Learning about the dynamics of global systems

Thinking about the future we want to:

  • Clarify goals/priorities
  • Develop alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future
  • Investigate the leverage various agent-classes have in shaping the future

Assumptions that underlie IFs development and use:

  • Global issues are becoming more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow
  • Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently enunciated
  • Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is growing rapidly
  • The domain of human choice and action is broadening

What can you investigate with IFs? Examples include:

  • Environmental Sustainability: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, fossil fuel usage
  • Social/Political Change: Life expectancy, literacy rate, democracy level, status of women, value change
  • Demographic Futures: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration
  • Food and Agriculture: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates
  • Energy: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, renewable energy share
  • Economics: Sectoral production, consumption, and trade patterns and structural change
  • Global System: Country and regional power levels

IFs Issues and Modules: Visual Representation

Visual representation of IFs structure

Among the philosophical premises of the International Futures (IFs) project is that the model cannot be a "black box" to users and be truly useful. Model users must be able to examine the structures of IFs in order (1) to have confidence in them, and (2) learn from them.

There is available (see topics under Understanding the Mode in the contents of this help system):

IFs Issues and Modules: Quick Survey

The population module:

  • represents 22 age-sex cohorts to age 100+
  • calculates change in fertility and mortality rates in response to income, income distribution, and analysis multipliers
  • computes average life expectancy at birth, literacy rate, and overall measures of human development (HDI) and physical quality of life
  • represents migration and HIV/AIDS
  • includes a newly developing submodel of formal education across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels

The economic module:

  • represents the economy in six sectors: agriculture, materials, energy, industry, services, and ICT (other sectors could be configured, using raw data from the GTAP project)
  • computes and uses input-output matrices that change dynamically with development level
  • is a general equilibrium-seeking model that does not assume exact equilibrium will exist in any given year; rather it uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time
  • contains an endogenous production function that represents contributions to growth in multifactor productivity from R&D, education, worker health, economic policies ("freedom"), and energy prices (the "quality" of capital)
  • uses a Linear Expenditure System to represent changing consumption patterns
  • utilizes a "pooled" rather than the bilateral trade approach for international trade
  • is being imbedded during 2002 in a social accounting matrix (SAM) envelope that will tie economic production and consumption to intra-actor financial flows

The agricultural module:

  • represents production, consumption and trade of crops and meat; it also carries ocean fish catch and aquaculture in less detail
  • maintains land use in crop, grazing, forest, urban, and "other" categories
  • represents demand for food, for livestock feed, and for industrial use of agricultural products
  • is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
  • overrides the agricultural sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The energy module:

  • portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable
  • represents consumption and trade of energy in the aggregate
  • represents known reserves and ultimate resources of the fossil fuels
  • portrays changing capital costs of each energy type with technological change as well as with draw-downs of resources
  • is a partial equilibrium model in which energy stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes
  • overrides the energy sector in the economic module unless the user chooses otherwise

The two socio-political sub-modules:

Within countries or geographic groupings

  • represents fiscal policy through taxing and spending decisions
  • shows six categories of government spending: military, health, education, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category
  • represents changes in social conditions of individuals (like fertility rates or literacy levels), attitudes of individuals (such as the level of materialism/postmaterialism of a society from the World Value Survey), and the social organization of people (such as the status of women)
  • represents the evolution of democracy
  • represents the prospects for state instability or failure

Between countries or groupings of countries

  • traces changes in power balances across states and regions
  • allows exploration of changes in the level of interstate threat
  • represents possible action-reaction processes and arms races with associated potential for conflict among countries

The implicit environmental module:

  • is distributed throughout the overall model
  • allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, of the area of forested land, of water usage, and of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions

The implicit technology module:

  • is distributed throughout the overall model
  • allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in agriculture, energy, and the broader economy
  • explicitly represents the extent of electronic networking of individuals in societies
  • is tied to the governmental spending model with respect to R&D spending 

IFs Background

International Futures (IFs) has evolved since 1980 through three "generations," with a fourth generation now taking form.

The first generation had deep roots in the world models of the 1970s, including those of the Club of Rome. In particular, IFs drew on the Mesarovic-Pestel or World Integrated Model (Mesarovic and Pestel 1974). The author of IFs had contributed to that project, including the construction of the energy submodel. IFs consciously also drew on the Leontief World Model (Leontief et al. 1977), the Bariloche Foundation’s world model (Herrera et al. 1976), and Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARU 1977), following comparative analysis of those models by Hughes (1980). That generation was written in FORTRAN and available for use on main-frame computers through CONDUIT, an educational software distribution center at the University of Iowa. Although the primary use of that and subsequent generations was by students, IFs has always had some policy analysis capability that has appealed to specialists. For example, the U.S. Foreign Service Institute used the first generation of IFs in a mid-career training program.

The second generation of International Futures moved to early microcomputers in 1985, using the DOS platform. It was a very simplified version of the original IFs without regional or country differentiation.

The third generation, first available in 1993, became a full-scale microcomputer model. The third generation improved earlier representations of demographic, energy, and food systems, but added new environmental and socio-political content. It built upon the collaboration of the author with the GLOBUS project, and it adopted the economic submodel of GLOBUS (developed by the author). GLOBUS had been created with the inspiration of Karl Deutsch and under the leadership of Stuart Bremer (1987) at the Wissenschaftszentrum in Berlin.

The third generation has produced three editions/major releases of IFs, each accompanied by a book also called International Futures (Hughes 1993, 1996, 1999). The second edition moved to a Visual Basic platform that allowed a much improved menu-driven interface, running under Windows. The third edition incorporated an early global mapping capability and an initial ability to do cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis.

The fourth generation has been taking shape since early 2000. It has been heavily influenced by the usage of the model in an increasingly policy-analysis mode by several important organizations. First, General Motors commissioned a specialized version of IFs named CoVaTrA (Consumer Values Trends Analysis) with a need for updated and extended demographic modeling and representation of value change. An alliance was established with the World Values Survey, directed by Ronald Inglehart, to create that version. Second, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned a specialized version named IFs for SAG. The work involved in preparing that greatly extended and enhanced the socio-political representations of the model, both domestic and international. Third, the European Commission sponsored a project named TERRA which has led to a specialized version named IFs for TERRA. IFs for TERRA work led to enhancements across the model, including improved representation of economic sectors, updated IO matrices and a basic Social Accounting Matrix, GINI and Lorenz curves, and preparing for extended environmental impact representation (drawing upon the Advanced Sustainability Analysis framework of the Finland Futures Research Center).

Throughout this emergence of a fourth generation IFs (incorporating all of the above elements for additional users) there has been also a heavy emphasis on enhanced usability. Ideas from Robert Pestel in the TERRA project led to the creation of a new tree-structure for scenario creation and management. Ideas from Ronald Inglehart led to the development of the Guided Use structure and a somewhat more game-like character within that structure. Inglehart also help arrange funding to support the programming of Guided Use through the European Union Center of the University of Michigan.

The fifth version of IFs is currently in use and represents broad strides to improving the model and its usability. It is the first version of this software to be placed online due to the help of the National Intelligence Council (http://www.ifs.du.edu). Also, usability has been increased as Packaged Displays and Flex Packaged Displays were introduced that allowed for the creation of very specific lists of countries/regions, groups or Glists. A new education model has also been incorporated into the broader IFs model. New scenarios were created for UNEP (focusing on environmental change) and Pardee (focusing on poverty). Finally, one of the largest changes made was incorporating 182 countries into the Base-Case scenario used by IFs. Previous versions of IFs used broader regions to forecast global trends. This change also did away with the Student and Professional versions.

Geographic Representation of the World

186 countries underpin the functioning of IFs and these countries can be displayed separately or as parts of larger groups that users can determine.

Below is a visual representation of how different entities are organized into Countries/Regions, Groups or Glists:

Visual representation of IF's definition of regions/countries/groups/glists

*Note: In older versions of IFs, Regions were used as intermediaries between Countries and Groups. In the future, they, or some similarly named unit, will be a sub-unit of Countries. Regions, acting as a sub-unit of Countries, are currently not a feature of IFs. See the image located at the bottom of this Help topic.

When using IFs, there are many occasions where the user is asked whether or not they would like to display their results as a product of single countries, or larger groups. This is typically a toggle switch that moves between Country/Region and Groups, however, it might be a three-way-toggle that includes Country/Region, Group and Glist.

Countries/Regions are currently the smallest geographical unit that users can represent. The ability to split countries down into smaller regions, or states, is under development. There are 186 different countries/regions that users can display.

Groups are variably organized geographically or by memberships in international institutions/regimes. You can find out who is represented in each group and add or delete members by exploring the Managing Regionalization function.

Glists merge both Groups and Countries/Regions. These lists are mostly geographically bound. In the future, the Glist distinction will become more important as some users may want to place, for example, both the Indian state of Kerala in a Glist with Sri Lanka and Nepal.

Users may also want to create their own groups or explore what countries are members of what groups.

IFs Time Horizon

Future Forecasts. IFs begins computation with data from 2000 and can dynamically calculate values for all variables annually through 2100.

Historical Analysis and "Forecasts." IFs also includes an extensive and growing historical data base starting in 1960. The data basis allows analysis of relationships among variables across countries and across time. 

Instructional Use

The standard modes for using IFs in a classroom are:

1. Assigning class members to an issue area or topic. Consider identifying specific questions for them to address.

2. Assigning class members to a country/geographic region. Again, specificity helps.

Most often, students will work independently or in groups on projects and share information after completing them. It is possible, however, to have students work interactively, by assigning them topics or regions, letting them begin work, and then have the interacting groups (or individuals) create a collective model run with the changes that each group proposes by topic or region. That process, although more difficult to organize, allows the class as whole to investigate the interaction of their topics or regions (and to share learning about model use).

There is a web site available in support of the educational use of IFs. You will find syllabi at that site. There are several publications on IFs, including a book structured specifically for educational use.

Donald Borock has described his classroom use of IFs in print. Borock, Donald. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," Advances in Social Science and Computers 4, 103-127.

Acknowledgements

The author gratefully recognizes critical contributions in the forms of:

1. Testing and suggestions for development of IFs in one or more of multiple generations. By Donald Borock, Richard Chadwick, William Dixon, Dale Rothman, Phil Schrodt, Douglas Stuart, Donald Sylvan, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ronald Inglehart.
2. Computer assistance across many releases. By Michael Niemann, Terrance Peet-Lukes, Douglas McClure, Mohammod Irfan, and Jose Solorzano.
3. Data gathering and general assistance. By James Chung, Padma Padula, Shannon Brady, David Horan, Michael Ferrier, Kay Drucker, Warren Christopher, and Anwar Hossain.
4. Long-term encouragement and support. By Harold Guetzkow, Karl Deutsch, Richard Chadwick, Gerald Barney, and Ronald Inglehart.
5. Association in related world modeling projects and projects building upon IFs. By Mihajlo Mesarovic, Aldo Barsotti, Juan Huerta, John Richardson, Thomas Shook, Patricia Strauch, and other members of the World Integrated Model (WIM) team. By Stuart Bremer, Peter Brecke, Thomas Cusack, Wolf Dieter-Eberwein, Brian Pollins, and Dale Smith of the GLOBUS modeling project. By Evan Hillebrand, Paul Herman, and others of the IFs for SAG project. By Rob Lempert and Steve Bankes at RAND, Santa Monica. By Robert Pestel, Jonathan Cave, Ronald Inglehart, Sergei Parinov, Pentti Malaska, and many others in the IFs for TERRA project.
6. Financial assistance (without responsibility for the form of the evolving product). By the National Science Foundation, the Cleveland Foundation, the Exxon Education Foundation, the Kettering Family Foundation, the Pacific Cultural Foundation, the United States Institute of Peace, General Motors, the Strategic Assessments Group of the Central Intelligence Agency, the European Commission (Information Society Technology) Programme, the European Union Center of the University of Michigan, the National Intelligence Council (for web conversion), and Frederick S. Pardee.             

Feedback

Feedback on how to improve IFs is always appreciated, especially if you find something that is not working. Compliments are also accepted. Please contact. To send the IFs team an e-mail, click on Pardee Center in stand-alone versions or on the web.

Support for IFs Use

Publications on IFs

To obtain additional information about IFs and its use, consult:

Barry B. Hughes and Evan E. Hillebrand, Exploring and Shaping International Futures. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers, 2006. Specifically, see chapter 4.

Barry B. Hughes, International Futures: Choices in the Face of Uncertainty, 3rd ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999. This volume is built around IFs and contains detailed suggestions for its use. Version 3.17 of IFs, which runs under Windows 95, is distributed with the third edition of the book. The second edition contained a version for Windows 3.1, and the first edition ran under DOS. Chapter 4 of the 2nd edition of IFs included Flow Charts of Worldviews , reproduced now in this Help system.

Barry B. Hughes, Continuity and Change in World Politics, 4th ed. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 2000. IFs can also usefully supplement this textbook on global politics.

Barry B. Hughes, "The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project. 1999. Simulation and Gaming 30, No. 3 (September): 304-326.

IFs Bibliography

Alcamo, Joseph, Rik Leemans and Eric Kreileman, eds. 1998. Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. The Netherlands: Pergamon.

Alcamo, Joseph. 1994. IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Alexandratos, Nikos, ed. 1995. World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (An FAO Study). New York: FAO and John Wiley and Sons.

Allen, R. G. D. 1968. Macro-Economic Theory: A Mathematical Treatment. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Avery, Dennis. 1995. "Saving the Planet with Pesticides," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 50-82.

Bailey, Ronald, ed. 1995. The True State of the Planet. New York: The Free Press.

Barbieri, Kathleen. 1996. "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 33: 29-50.

Barker, T.S. and A.W.A. Peterson, eds. 1987. The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Barney, Gerald O., W. Brian Kreutzer, and Martha J. Garrett, eds. 1991. Managing a Nation, 2nd ed. Boulder: Westview Press.

Barro, Robert J. 1997. Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 1999. Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Bennett, D. Scott, and Allan Stam. 2003. The Behavioral Origins of War: Cumulation and Limits to Knowledge in Understanding International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press

Birg, Herwig. 1995. World Population Projections for the 21st Century. Frankfurt: Campus Verlag.

Borock, Donald M. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," Advances in Social Science and Computers 4, 103-127.

Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, Ernest Massiah, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1994. World Population Projections 1994-95 Edition [editions are biannual] Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.

Boulding, Elise and Kenneth E. Boulding. 1995. The Future: Images and Processes. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Brecke, Peter. 1993. "Integrated Global Models that Run on Personal Computers," Simulation60 (2).

Bremer, Stuart A. 1977. Simulated Worlds: A Computer Model of National Decision-Making. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Bremer, Stuart A., ed. 1987. The GLOBUS Model: Computer Simulation of World-wide Political and Economic Developments. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Walter Gruhn. 1988. Micro GLOBUS: A Computer Model of Long-Term Global Political and Economic Processes. Berlin: edition sigma.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Barry B. Hughes. 1990. Disarmament and Development: A Design for the Future? Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.

Brockmeier, Martina and Channing Arndt (presentor). 2002. Social Accounting Matrices. Powerpoint presentation on GTAP and SAMs (June 21). Found on the web.

Brown, Lester R. 1981. Building a Sustainable Society. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R. 1988. "Analyzing the Demographic Trap," in State of the World 1987, eds. Lester R. Brown and others. New York: W.W. Norton, pp. 20-37.

Brown, Lester R. 1995. Who Will Feed China? New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R. 1996. Tough Choices: Facing the Challenge of Food Scarcity. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., et al. 1996 State of the World 1996. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., Nicholas Lenssen, and Hal Kane. 1995. Vital Signs 1995. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., Christopher Flavin, and Hal Kane. 1996. Vital Signs 1996. New York: W.W. Norton.

Burkhardt, Helmut. 1995. "Priorities for a Sustainable Civilization," unpublished conference paper. Department of Physics, Ryerson Polytechnic University, Toronto, Canada.

Bussolo, Maurizio, Mohamed Chemingui and David O’Connor. 2002. A Multi-Region Social Accounting Matrix (1995) and Regional Environmental General Equilibrium Model for India (REGEMI). Paris: OECD Development Centre (February). Available at www.oecd.org/dev/technics.

British Petroleum Company. 1995. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. London: British Petroleum Company.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 1991. Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1991. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 1994. The World Factbook 1994. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.

Chang, Sheldon S. L. 1961. Synthesis of Optimum Control Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Chenery, Hollis and Moises Syrquin. 1975. Patterns of Development 1950-1970. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cipolla, Carlo M. 1962. The Economic History of World Population. Baltimore: Penguin.

Cook, Earl. 1976. Man, Energy, Society. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

Committee on the Strategic Assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Coal Program. 1995. Coal: Energy for the Future. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1981. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1981b. Environmental Trends. Washington, D.C. (July).

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1991. 21st Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

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Infrastructure Bibliography

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Fay, Marianne. 2001. “Financing the Future: Infrastructure Needs in Latin America, 2000-05”. Policy Research Working Paper no. 2545. World Bank, Washington, DC. http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/2545.pdf?expires=1375200693&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DB7E5FB146EE28C93511B5ADAB2FD3CB.

Fay, Marianne, and Tito Yepes. 2003. “Investing in Infrastructure: What Is Needed from 2000 to 2010?” Policy Research Working Paper no. 3102. World Bank, Washington, DC. RePEc. http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3102.html.

Hughes, Barry B. 2007. “Forecasting Global Economic Growth with Endogenous Multifactor Productivity: The International Futures (IFs) Approach”. Pardee Center for International Futures Working Paper, University of Denver. Denver, CO. www.ifs.du.edu/documents/reports.aspx.

Hughes, Barry B., Devin Joshi, Jonathan Moyer, Timothy Sisk and José Roberto Solórzano. 2014. Strengthening Governance Globally. vol. 5, Patterns of Potential Human Progress series. Boulder, CO, and New Delhi, India: Paradigm Publishers and Oxford University Press.

Hughes, Gordon, Paul Chinowsky, and Ken Strzepek. 2009. “The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure”. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Discussion Paper no. 2. World Bank, Washington, DC.

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Kohli, Harpaul Alberto, and Phillip Basil. 2011. “Requirements for Infrastructure Investment in Latin America Under Alternate Growth Scenarios.” Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 3(1): 59 –110. doi:10.1177/097491011000300103. http://eme.sagepub.com/content/3/1/59.abstract.

Kim, M. Julie, and Rita Nangia. 2010. “Infrastructure Development in India and China—A Comparative Analysis.” In William Ascher and Corinne Krupp, eds.,. Physical Infrastructure Development: Balancing The Growth, Equity, and Environmental Imperatives. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 97–140.

Lora, Eduardo A. 2007. Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit? Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) - Research Department.

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Yepes, Tito. 2005. Expenditure on Infrastructure in East Asia Region, 2006–2010. East Asia Pacific Infrastructure Flagship Study. Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), World Bank.

You, Liangzhi, Claudia Ringler, Ulrike Wood-Sichra, Richard Robertson, Stanley Wood, Tingju Zhu, Gerald Nelson, Zhe Guo, and Yan Sun. 2011. “What Is the Irrigation Potential for Africa? A Combined Biophysical and Socioeconomic Approach.” Food Policy 36(6): 770–782. doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.09.001. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030691921100114X.

Development Mode Features