Shared Socio-economic Pathways

In recent years, the international research community has defined a framework for the construction of new scenarios for climate change research. One key component of this framework is the set of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which describe possible future socioeconomic conditions. These have been presented as narrative storylines with some quantitative underpinning, primarily for key drivers related to population, education, the macro-economy, and urbanization. We collected these forecasts from participating research groups and added those to IFs to allow for easy comparisons with other scenarios. In addition, we are using IFs to: 1) provide additional quantitative representation of socio-political systems and 2) examine the internal consistency of the forecasts for the key drivers, which were developed using separate models. This work has already resulted in several peer-reviewed publications by Pardee personnel with outside collaborators, with more in the pipeline.