Zurich Insurance Group and the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security are engaged in a multi-year thought leadership effort to quantify aggregated global risks. In 2015, we used an extensive quantitative model pioneered by the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures to explore the economic bene ts and costs of cyber risks; in 2016, we continued to use this unique model, focusing on demographic risks. In this report, we focus on geopolitical risks. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions.