The Pardee Center for International Futures staff, along with Randall Kuhn, Director of the Global Health Affairs Program at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, successfully submitted two important studies to Population Services International (PSI). Both studies are extensions of the modeling and forecasting work published in our center's third Patterns of Potential Human Progress volume, Improving Global Health.
One study focuses on the long-term systemic effects of indoor air pollution due to traditional cookstoves in developing countries. Equipped with the capabilities of the International Futures (IFs) integrated forecasting system, this paper's authors were able to employ an unmatched method for dynamically considering this health challenge over time and for analyzing the impacts of improved solid fuel stoves or a jump to modern liquid-fuel or electric stoves. Previous approaches to analyzing this issue were confined to static, short-term methods. Authors for this report included Randall Kuhn, Dale Rothman, Sara Turner, Jose Solorzano, and Barry Hughes.
A second, shorter study investigated the long-term impact of PSI’s programs that provide insecticide-treated bed nets and family planning services in African countries most affected by communicable disease. Again using IFs, our researchers were able to add to PSI's own short-term evaluative capacity and forecast the broader, long-term effects on African economies and Human Development Index (HDI) measures.
Photo credit: Michael Benanav
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