On September 27, the Institute for Security Studies released a new report by Julia Bello-Schünemann and Pardee Center Director Jonathan D. Moyer, exploring possible trajectories of political instability in sub-Saharan Africa until 2040. Structural Pressures and Political Instability: Trajectories for Sub-Saharan Africa uses five distinct models from the International Futures model (IFs) to analyze the main threats to peace and stability in sub-Saharan Africa: demographics, low levels of development, regime type, and horizontal inequalities or cross-group discrimination.
Although the region has seen important peace and security gains over the past two decades, the future is likely to be turbulent. Understanding possible trajectories of political violence and instability is key to successful conflict prevention, peacebuilding efforts, and long-term development. This report was produced for the Political Settlements Research Programme, funded by UK Aid from the UK Department for International Development (DFID). An article ISS Today, also on Septmebr 27, summarizes the report.