Richard Cincotta, Ph.D.

Richard Cincotta is a political demographer whose current research focuses on statistically predicting political events and trends that are associated with demographic indicators. His most recent research focuses on trends in democratization and intra-state conflict, and on the demography of Israel and Iran. Dr. Cincotta is a Wilson Center Global Fellow working at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC, and an Intelligence Community Associate collaborating with the National Intelligence Council’s (NIC’s) Strategic Futures Group. He formerly served as the Director of Demographic and Social Science Programs at the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit (2006-09), and was a contributor to the NIC’s Global Trends (GT) 2025 and GT2030 reports (both are available on the web). Dr. Cincotta served as an AAAS Fellow and Public Health Fellow at USAID’s Office of Population and Reproductive Health (1992-1996), serving on the US technical staff at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development; and he worked as a senior demographic researcher at PAI (a reproductive health NGO, 1996-2006). Recent publications and web essays (available from author) include:

Cincotta, R. 2015. “Demography as Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain.” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22 (2): 129-148, (special issue: Early Warning, R. Fahlmann, ed.).

Cincotta, R. 2015. “Who’s Next? Age Structure and the Prospects of Democracy in North Africa and the Middle East.” In: Population Change in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa: Beyond the Demographic Divide (Christiane Timmerman, Neels Karel, Sara Mels, Jacques Haers, and Koenraad Matthijs, eds.), Ashgate, London, pp. 167-202.

Cincotta, R. 2013. “Government Without the Ultra-Orthodox? Demography and the Future of Israeli Politics,” FPRI e-Notes, Dec. 2013, Foreign Policy Research Institute. http://www.fpri.org/docs/Cincotta_-_Government_without_the_UltraOrthodox...

New Security Beat: “Will Tunisia’s Democracy Survive? The View from Political Demography”. May 11, 2015. http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2015/05/tunisias-democracy- survive-view- political-demography/ . Also available on the Stimson Spotlight blog.

Arms Control Wonk (introduced by Michael Krepon): “Slow to Progress: Results of Pakistan’s Most Recent Demographic and Health Survey” Dec. 1, 2014 http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2014/12/Cincotta_PakistanHlthDem... ; also, a variation of this essay was posted on The New Security Beat.

Stimson Spotlight: “Were High International Food Prices an Early Warning for the Arab Spring? Probably Not.” April 28, 2014. http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/were-high- international-food- prices-an- early-warning- of-the-arab-spring- probably-not- /