Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030

Go, Ara, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schünemann. October 2013. “Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa’s National Development Plan 2030.” African Futures Paper No. 7. Institute for Security Studies and Pardee Center for International Futures, Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, Colorado, USA.

This analysis explores South Africa’s fertility, mortality and migration outlooks, with a particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding migration. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and data from the South African 2011 National Census, three potential population futures are simulated and then compared to the projections in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. According to our mid-range forecasts, by 2030 South Africa’s population is projected to increase to between 64.4 and 68.8 million depending on declining, stable, or increasing rates of in-migration.

 

 

 

Content Type: AFP Paper
Publication Date: 2013
Author: Ara Go, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schünemann
Access Document: http://www.pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/Population%20Futures.pdf
Source: Institute for Security Studies and Pardee Center for International Futures