A recent article uses the Pardee Center’s International Futures (IFs) forecasting model to explore poverty eradication in fragile states. Published in Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, this integrated analysis aims to inform prioritization and strategic planning to meet the new global poverty-reduction goals for 2030.
Authored by Pardee Center Founder Barry Hughes, former Pardee researcher Alison Burt, and Gary Milante (currently of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), the article takes a scenario-modeling approach to identifying likely trends in poverty as well as possible results of aggressive interventions.
Historically, fragile states have made the least progress on reducing poverty, while most policy has focused on the rest of the developing world. The report concludes that “even under the most optimistic circumstances, fragile states will almost certainly be home to hundreds of millions of poor in 2030, suggesting that the world must do things dramatically differently” to eradicate poverty in fragile and conflict-affected countries in the next 15 years of development.
The authors’ partnership began when they wrote a World Bank working paper on poverty eradication in fragile states; this recent article is an extracted version of that report.