The Pardee Center for International Futures, in a partnership with Atlantic Council and Zurich Insurance, has completed an analysis on the future of demographic risk. The analysis has been published in four articles via Zurich Insurance, one article via Atlantic Council, and a reference report via the Pardee Center. The articles were launched on 9 September following meetings in Washington, DC, with co-author and Pardee Research Associate David Bohl in attendance. The demographic risk analysis is the second of a three-part study addressing the question, “Is global risk outpacing global growth?”
The report explores demographic change, which can be so slow-moving as to be nearly imperceptible over short-term horizons. However, the macro-economic, financial, and social implications of these changes can be enormous. High-income countries will face increasing difficulties in covering the growing demand for healthcare and pensions. While many developing countries still have some time before being confronted with these financial risks, the rate in which they are aging means they will have much less time to adequately prepare before their demographic dividend runs out. Not making the right choices regarding demographic risk can lessen economic growth potential for decades.
Update: In November 2016, Zurich Insurance published a condensed version of the study in a report entitled, "Rethinking How Society Ages."