Our team worked with Peru’s National Center for Strategic Planning (CEPLAN) to embed IFs into the country’s long-term visioning efforts. CEPLAN used the tool while developing the country's Bicentenary Plan, which includes an outlook to 2021, the 200th anniversary of Peruvian independence. The organization also plans to use IFs for trend forecasting in Peru through to 2030 and 2050. To support these efforts, our team conducted a series of local IFs trainings with dedicated in-country specialists.
In 2014, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) awarded a three-year grant to our center and a team of Korbel faculty as part of its Minerva Research Initiative. Researchers on this multi-faceted project, which the DOD recently extended into its fourth year, analyze previous attempts to predict the onset of state failure, evaluate the drivers of state fragility, build tools and data associated with the drivers of domestic conflict, and use IFs to forecast the probability of future state failure. In parallel with the development of a series of quantitative models that might be used to forecast state failure, our researchers produced 50 qualitative case studies that summarized key circumstances leading to past state failure events around the world. This grant also covered research on modeling dyadic conflict and supported ongoing development of our DataGator tool. In addition, this grant supported the continued development of the Major Episodes of Contention (MEC) database led by Korbel Professor Erica Chenoweth.
Following a presentation of our development trends report for USAID in Southern Africa, Irish Aid asked our team, along with our partners at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), to expand our trend and scenario analysis in Mozambique. Together, we launched “Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040” in Maputo in June 2017. The report includes an adjusted IFs Base Case, or Current Path, scenario to better understand how advances in the country’s natural gas production might affect Mozambique’s development prospects.
In 2015, our team, along with Dr. Randall Kuhn, led a training on IFs for the Thai Ministry of Public Health as part of a World Health Organization sponsored program. The training focused on understanding current health trends in Thailand, forecasting mortality and morbidity across different disease types, and exploring potential policy interventions that could impact health outcomes.
Our center's relationship with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has expanded significantly in recent years, as we use IFs to inform the organization’s five-year Development Cooperation Strategies at both the regional and country level. Most recently, in partnership with our colleagues at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa, we produced trend and scenario analysis reports for USAID missions in Ethiopia and the Southern Africa region. In 2016, a team of our researchers held an IFs training with the USAID mission in Jakarta, Indonesia. We also completed a report on development trends in Uganda in 2015, which directly influenced the country mission's five-year strategy for budgeting, planning, and resource allocation, and led to further ongoing analysis of key development indicators at the subnational level.
Pardee Center personnel have contributed forecasting expertise to three of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s quadrennial Global Trends reports, most recently Global Trends 2030. These are forward-looking documents prepared for delivery to the incoming or re-elected President and designed to aid policy makers by highlighting alternative futures for key geopolitical issues.
Our partnership with the U.S. Army Future Studies Group (previously the Chief of Staff of the Army's Strategic Studies Group) explores the future operational environment for the US Army using new structured datasets and our existing modeling tools, including the IFs model. Our database creation efforts focus on measuring military hardware to construct indices of hard capabilities, military capital stocks, and bilateral “reach.”
Our center continues to work with the Western Cape Provincial Government in South Africa to expand the country's provincial model in IFs. Our collaboration is part of the province's ongoing effort to represent the history and future of development within the Western Cape. To date, we have produced provincial level policy analyses and conducted a series of IFs trainings for provincial government officials. An IFs-focused team, which includes former Pardee Center research assistants, now exists within the Western Cape Provincial Government.